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| Horizon Scanning & Futures Home |
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Horizon Scanning & Futures Home
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Outputs from lessons learned review now uploaded!
In 2006, the Horizon Scanning and Futures programme entered a year-long period of review and consolidation and commissioned Sparknow, a pioneer in the use of narrative techniques to capture knowledge, to help it review the work thus far and draw out the lessons to belearned.
Through a series of events, interviews, discussions and exercises we've gathered countless experiences and insights that tell us how the programme has been run in the past and how our 'critical friends' think it should be run in the future.
The lessons we've found are presented in these essays, each of which is a frank and readable summary of our findings on a core 'sticky' question identified by our stakeholders.
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| Wrapped around the essays, the folder itself also functions as a wallchart, overview and planning tool. It lays out the project ifecycle and places on it the collected advice and hard-won experience of the people who carried out Defra's early futures projects.
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Defra Definition of Horizon Scanning (2002)
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“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments
which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of Defra’s policies and evidence base.”
"The horizon scanning team is a window onto the wider world, it interacts with industry, with the universities and research institutions, and it feeds into the policy divisions by bringing policy people into contact with the people who can help them" - Professor Sir Howard Dalton FRS
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Why think about the future?
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“ We can either stumble into the future and hope it turns out alright or we can try and shape it. To shape it, the first step is to work out what it might look like” - Stephen Ladyman MP, January 2006
“ Uncertainty creates winners and losers. Organisations that want to survive have to adapt” - Kees van der Heijden, Professor of General and Strategic Management at the Graduate Business School of Strathclyde University, Glasgow
“ It is not the strongest of the species who survive, nor the most intelligent; rather it is those most responsive to change” - Charles Darwin
"I've done rocket science. I can tell you. Scenario planning is not rocket science" - Peter Schwartz, Co-founder and chairman of the Global Business Network
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