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| About Horizon Scanning and Futures |
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About Horizon Scanning and Futures
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What is Futures Analysis?
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| Futures analysis was developed in World War II. It became popular in the business world in the 1960s when methods that attempted to predict a single future incorrectly forecast important details and often led to unwelcome surprises. Horizon scanning and futures techniques consider ranges of possible, plausible futures so that planning can be put in place to adapt to and mitigate against various conditions.
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Horizon Scanning
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“The systematic examination of potential threats, opportunities and likely future developments which are at the margins of current thinking and planning. Horizon scanning may explore novel and unexpected issues, as well as persistent problems or trends. Overall, horizon scanning is intended to improve the robustness of Defra’s policies and evidence base.” -Defra, 2002.
Horizon scanning is a distinct futures methodology that researches and draws out key trends which are on the margins of our current thinking, but which will impact on our lives in the future. These trends and drivers interact with each other and with the policies and strategies we put in place to create new conditions and new futures. By analysing trends and drivers, threats and opportunities to the department can be discovered and explored strategically. This will help to improve the evidence which underpins policy making.
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Other futures techniques
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Horizon scanning is the essential first step in an integrated futures approach. Other futures methodologies (e.g. scenario planning, visioning, reverse engineering, wind tunnelling) can be used to help us to see how these trends will pan out into the future. For example, scientific research on climate change has employed futures techniques (including modelling and scenario planning) to attempt to envisage worlds in which various impacts of climate change take place. These scenarios have been developed to help us create plans to cope with the consequences of the impacts and to understand how our actions today may affect the world of the future. This work helps us to see how the actions we take now can create a safer, more sustainable environment for generations ahead.
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