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| Programme of Work 2002-2005 |
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Programme of Work 2002-2005
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The Original Horizon Scanning Strategy and Programme of Work
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The projects which made up the programme of work 2002-2005 originated from the ideas received during the original consultation. These ideas were corralled into five research themes out of which the projects were born. A brief description of these five themes is as follows:
- Environmental Constraints is concerned with two related issues. First is the potential for the limited availability of natural resources such as water, soil, materials and genetic diversity, to constrain economic and social development. The perception that these resources are abundant may not be justified and horizon scanning work needs to identify possible pressure points. Second is the possibility that the intrusion of human activities into natural systems may cause critical environmental thresholds to be reached, making it impossible for these systems to adapt and recover. Detecting and avoiding potentially irreversible changes is a central task for horizon scanning.
- Coping with Threats is concerned with the novel and the unexpected. It aims to assess vulnerabilities to new threats and to improve society's capacity to adapt. The potential damage of a new hazard - be it an outbreak of animal disease, new evidence of an environmental change or a socio-economic trend may well be mitigated through precautionary measures, prior assessment of adaptation measures and the development of contingencies.
- Future Landscapes is concerned with urban and rural landscapes, broadly defined, with the forces that are likely to shape them in future, and with ways in which they might be influenced by land use and environmental planning.
- Meeting People's Future Needs is concerned with people, communities, cultures and lifestyles, and the ways in which the wants and needs of the general public and groups within it, should influence Defra’s policy agendas.
- Re-thinking the Food Economy explores the options for creating food chains providing safe, nutritious food to the market at affordable prices.
These themes are fully explained in the associated pages.
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The Projects 2002 - 2005
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Under these five themes Defra then commissioned a number of in-depth research studies on topics ranging from the 'Impact of Non-Synthetic Chemicals on the Environment' to 'The Future of Healthy Ecosystems'. In addition, the programme also commissioned a report containing four short 'state of the art' studies on biosecurity and one 'thought piece' on the food chain, 15 pieces in total. Each of these has been independently peer reviewed by two content experts and two reviewers with horizon scanning and futures expertise.
The peer review process for each of the studies has now drawn to a close and final drafts amended in the light of the reviewer’s comments have been submitted.
We are currently working with the relevant policy areas to explore the implications of the studies.
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The Baseline Scan 2003 - 2005
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| Defra also initiated a more broad-based scan of scans entitled the Baseline Scan which identified over three hundred emerging trends relevant to the Defra agenda – the outputs have been presented through a series of seminars and have been used as part of the evidence base in a number of policy areas.
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Projects Summer 2005
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In addition, more recently, we have undertaken a number of shorter exercises which have been focused on the specific interests of policy makers and developed using the baseline scan evidence base.
- A study of long-term trends affecting the farming industry
- Defra Natural Resource Protection Future Trends Study
- Workshop Outputs - The Future for Non-Food Uses of Crops
Please see associated pages for further information.
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